Gold snapped lower after setting new highs, the dollar steadied in a narrow band, and crypto closed mixed as traders braced for late-month data. October’s final whole week reminded investors that volatility is still alive across all major asset classes.
Gold: From 4,346 Highs to 4,109 Weekly Close
The yellow metal started the week firmly bid. On Monday, 20 Oct, spot XAU/USD touched 4,346 USD/oz, marking another record in this year’s relentless rally.
By Friday, however, the tone changed sharply. Profit-taking, easing geopolitical tension, and a firmer dollar triggered a drop to ≈ 4,109 USD, the steepest weekly slide since mid-August.
Behind the move:
- Traders pared back rate-cut expectations after stronger-than-expected U.S. housing and jobless-claims data.
- ETF inflows slowed for the first time in five weeks.
- Asian physical premiums narrowed, hinting that near-term demand had cooled.
Despite the setback, gold remains up 18% YTD, supported by persistent central-bank buying and inflation hedging.
Technical View:
Support sits at 4,050–4,000; holding that shelf preserves the broader uptrend. A daily close above 4,250 would indicate that this week’s flush was corrective rather than structural. Below 4,000, momentum models would target 3,920 next.
US Dollar Index: Range Holds 98.6 – 99.1
The DXY spent most of the week inside a tight corridor. It opened near 98.6, tested 99.1, and closed Friday at 98.93.
The resilience came as Treasury yields ticked higher and market chatter turned to whether the Fed can deliver December cuts without reigniting inflation.
For equities and commodities, a steady dollar led to mixed cross-flows: energy remained soft, while metals faced mild pressure. Emerging-market FX traded defensively against the greenback, especially the yuan and the rand.
What to Watch:
A break above 99.2 would test the early-October pivot near 99.5; a drift under 98.5 could reopen the 97-handle from September. Short-term traders note that intraday volatility has compressed to its lowest since July — a potential precursor to a larger move.
Macro Outlook: Fed and Inflation Watch
Next week’s calendar is packed with PCE inflation, advance GDP, and several FOMC speeches — all potential catalysts for late-month positioning.
The market narrative has shifted from “when will cuts start” to “how shallow will they be.” Fed-funds futures now price ≈ 60 bps of easing by mid-2026, down from 90 bps just a month ago.
Key Themes:
- Inflation stickiness: Services CPI remains the main obstacle to faster policy easing.
- Labor cooling: The September–October job data trend shows a gradual slowing, helping risk sentiment but capping USD upside.
- Liquidity rotation: Month-end portfolio rebalancing could inject volatility into both bonds and crypto as funds square off their books.
For traders, that mix argues for tactical flexibility — keeping risk tight until after Thursday’s inflation print confirms the macro tone heading into November.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD): Testing 111 K Resistance
Bitcoin closed the week slightly higher, posting a 2.8% gain from 108,621 → 111,620 USD.
Volatility compressed mid-week, then expanded on Saturday as spot volumes surged above 35 billion USD — the highest since late September.
The key narrative remains the post-halving equilibrium. ETF flows stayed net positive but modest, while derivatives open interest reached a new high above 19 billion USD, reflecting renewed institutional leverage.
Technical Outlook:
- Support: 108 K → 109 K
- Resistance: 112 K → 113 K, then 117 K
- A decisive daily close above 112 K would invite another momentum extension toward 120 K. Failure to hold 108 K risks a retest of the October base near 105 K.
Momentum oscillators remain neutral, suggesting consolidation rather than reversal — a healthy backdrop for medium-term bulls.
Ethereum (ETH/USD): Sideways Chop Around 3,950
Ethereum underperformed slightly. Spot ETH/USD began the week near 3,985, dipped mid-week to 3,802, and recovered to 3,952 by Sunday’s Asia open; down just 0.8% w/w.
On-chain activity showed declining gas usage but stable staking ratios, indicating that holders continue to lock supply rather than exit.
Key Zones:
- Support: 3,800 – 3,850
- Resistance: 4,050 – 4,200
- Breaking above 4,050 would target 4,300, where August supply capped prior rallies.
- Below 3,800, a slide to 3,600 could follow if Bitcoin loses momentum.
Layer-2 transaction volume rose 6% w/w, a positive sign for network throughput even amid muted price action.
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Conclusion
The third week of October underscored the market’s transition phase: inflation fears are cooling but not gone, gold remains structurally bid despite corrections, and crypto is proving resilient at higher baselines.
For traders heading into month-end:
- Watch Gold 4,050, DXY 98.6–99.1, BTC 112 K, and ETH 4,050 for confirmation signals.
- Expect volatility to rise around Thursday’s inflation data.
- Keep risk adaptive; October’s low realized volatility could quickly reverse if macro surprises hit.