Gold Price Consolidates Around $4,000 After Sharp Drop
The gold price steadied around the $4,000 handle after Monday’s slide below that level. Spot XAU/USD briefly fell under $4,000 on October 27 in what many described as a “healthy correction” following this month’s record run, then spent the rest of the week oscillating near $4,000–$4,020. By November 2, gold hovered just under $4,000, essentially flat on a week where intraday swings stayed elevated.
Sentiment Cools, But Macro Support Lingers
Industry commentary from the LBMA conference in Kyoto framed the pullback as froth emerging from the market, with some desks eyeing $3,700–$3,500 if momentum softens further. Even so, longer-term houses remain constructive into 2026, driven by central-bank demand and diversification flows.
Technical Outlook:
Gold defended the $3,970–$3,980 area several times after Monday’s breakdown and struggled to sustain moves above ~$4,020–$4,040. Holding above $3,970 keeps $ 4,045 and $4,085 as immediate resistance; a daily close below $3,970 would expose $3,930 and then $3,900.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) Extends Gains Into The Month-End
The dollar firmed throughout the week, with DXY rising from ~98.8 on October 27 to ~99.8 by October 31 and ~99.8–99.9 on November 2—about a 1% weekly advance. Stronger late-month US data and firm inflation prints kept the greenback bid.
Macro Drivers
The BEA’s September 26 third estimate showed Q2 growth revised up to 3.8% annualized, and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow was tracking Q3 near 3.9% as of October 27. On October 31, the Core PCE release printed in line at 0.2% m/m, reinforcing “higher-for-longer” expectations at the margin and supporting the dollar.
Technical Analysis:
The DXY reclaimed and held the late-October highs, maintaining constructive momentum. Immediate support sits near 99.5/99.3, with resistance at 99.9/100.0. A sustained break above 100 would open the door to 100.3–100.5.
BTC Slips Back Toward $110K As Weekend Bounce Fades
Bitcoin lost ground over the week, sliding from around $ 114,500 on October 27 to roughly $ 110,000–$ 110,600 by November 1–2 (−3% to −4% week-over-week). Bulls briefly pushed the price to around $111,000 on Sunday before supply capped the move, and Monday (Nov. 3) saw follow-through selling.
Liquidations Cool; Macro Headwinds Persist
Crypto benefited from lower volatility mid-week, but the firmer dollar and in-line PCE data limited risk appetite into month-end. Positioning remains sensitive around the $111K–$112K zone that bears defending repeatedly.
Technical Setup:
Support: $109.5k then $107K. Resistance: $111K/$112K, then $114K. A daily close back above $ 112,000 would stabilize momentum; below $ 109,500 risks a run to the $ 107,000 area.
Ethereum Holds ~$3.9K After Mid-Week Shakeout
ETH traded choppy but orderly, moving from ~$4.16K on October 27 down toward ~$3.80–$3.90K by October 30–31, then stabilizing near $3.90–$3.91K across November 1–2. Overall, ETH ended the week modestly lower but resilient versus the mid-week dip.
Flows & Positioning
Open interest and leverage eased through late October, helping volatility compress into the weekend while spot buyers defended the 100-day area. Macro remained the main drag, with dollar strength limiting sustained rebounds.
Ethereum Price Forecast: $4,000 Remains The Magnet
Immediate resistance sits at $4,000/$4,100; a close above would unlock $4,300–$4,500. On the downside, $3,80x–$3,85x is first support, then $3,68x. Failure to hold $3,85x would warn of a deeper retest.
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Weekly Market Wrap-Up
Markets digested a textbook “de-frothing” week: gold stabilized around $4,000 after last week’s abrupt correction; the dollar extended its late-October climb on steady growth and sticky-ish inflation; and crypto ended mixed, with BTC edging lower and ETH holding near $3.9K. Heading into the new week, watch: whether DXY can sustain above ~99.8–100, if gold can reclaim and hold above $4,045, and whether BTC/ETH can convert weekend bounces into higher lows.
