The week of Dec 22–28 was a classic “holiday liquidity” environment. Price action was driven by thinner order books, late-week US macro releases (durable goods and a delayed Q3 GDP print), and year-end positioning. In this regime, trends can extend fast (gold did) while range markets can stay range-bound longer than traders expect (BTC and ETH did).
Macro backdrop
The main macro headline was that US growth data surprised to the upside while some “old economy” activity indicators remained soft.
- Q3 2025 GDP (initial estimate): 4.3% annualized. This is stronger than most market baselines and would normally support Treasury yields and the dollar.
- October durable goods orders: -2.2%. This shows weakness in manufacturing demand and keeps the “growth is uneven” narrative alive.
Inflation stayed in the background. Recent CPI prints looked softer, but many market participants still treat year-end data as noisy (delays, revisions, seasonal effects), so the market did not fully abandon the “Fed easing” thesis.
Geopolitics mattered too. Late-week flows into gold were widely framed as safe-haven demand, and in a thin-liquidity week, that kind of narrative can push price through resistance faster than usual.
DXY — US Dollar Index
Fundamentals
DXY’s story this week was stabilization, not reversal. Stronger growth data (GDP) helped stop the dollar from falling in a straight line, but it did not force a major repricing of the longer-term easing path. Durable goods weakness also supported the slowdown narrative and limited sustained upside.
So the macro logic is:
- GDP strength supports DXY short-term,
- Rate-cut expectations and year-end flows still cap upside.
Technical view (levels to journal)
This week’s action fits a consolidation box:
- Support: 97.8–98.0 (main floor), then 97.5 (next downside level).
- Resistance: 98.3 (first pivot), then 98.6–98.8 (key resistance band), then 100.0+ if a true reversal develops.
Trading bias:
- Treat DXY as range-bound until you see a daily close above ~98.6–98.8 or a decisive break under ~97.8.
- If DXY cannot hold above ~98.3 on bounces, the “sell rallies” play remains valid into the new year.
Gold — XAU/USD
Fundamentals
Gold was the trend asset of the week. It extended its record run on safe-haven demand and expectations of further Fed rate cuts. Importantly, gold kept its strength even after the strong GDP release, which suggests flows are not only “macro growth-rate sensitive,” but also positioning/hedging driven.
In holiday weeks, thin liquidity does not stop demand; it often amplifies breakouts once the price clears prior highs.
Technical view (levels to journal)
Gold is in breakout mode, but chasing is risky:
- Support: ~4,450, then ~4,400 (psychological line).
- Resistance/extension: ~4,525–4,530 (record zone), then ~4,567, then ~4,600–4,608 (next psychological/extension area).
Trading bias:
- Trend-following plan: buy pullbacks toward ~4,450 with invalidation below ~4,400, targeting ~4,600.
- Risk note: momentum is strong (overbought conditions are possible), so pullbacks can be sharp if liquidity returns after the holidays.
Bitcoin — BTC/USD
Fundamentals
Bitcoin did not behave like gold; it behaved like a range market. Across the week, BTC was broadly sideways with a slight negative drift (roughly high‑88k to high‑87k on daily references). This is typical when the market is waiting for a catalyst and liquidity is thin: moves are smaller, and traders focus on defending known levels rather than chasing breakouts.
This kind of week often creates “compression”: volatility looks calm until a trigger hits, then BTC can move fast once stop zones break. That is why mapping levels matters more than narratives right now.
Technical view (levels to journal)
Treat BTC as a defined range until proven otherwise:
- Support: 87k–88k (current floor).
- Resistance: 90k–91k (first ceiling); above that, 94k–94.3k becomes the key breakout area.
Trading bias:
- Range plan: buy near 87k–88k with tight invalidation, take profits into 90k–91k.
- Breakout plan: upgrade bullish bias only if BTC holds above 90k+ on daily closes; flip bearish if daily closes start holding under ~87k.
Ethereum — ETH/USD
Fundamentals
ETH remained a follower. Into year-end, it tracked BTC’s sideways behavior and stayed near the 2.9k–3.0k zone. In holiday weeks, ETH often underperforms BTC because liquidity is thinner and traders concentrate risk in the benchmark asset.
Technical view (levels to journal)
ETH is also in consolidation:
- Support: 2,900–2,950 (key floor).
- Resistance: 3,000–3,050 (near-term cap); then 3,300–3,400 only if the broader crypto complex breaks out.
Trading bias:
- Recovery consolidation: avoid forcing trades in the middle of the range.
- Best signals: clean breaks above 3,050 or clean failures below 2,900.
How to apply in UltraTrader
The “edge” this week was trading the right style for the regime:
- Regime tag: Holiday liquidity / year-end positioning (Dec 22–28).
- Macro catalyst tags: GDP 4.3% and durable goods -2.2% (these explain the DXY stabilization attempts).
- Set up tags:
- DXY: range stabilization 97.8–98.8 (don’t confuse stabilization with reversal).
- Gold: record breakout / pullback-buy near 4,450 (trend asset).
- BTC: 87k–91k range (mean reversion).
- ETH: 2.9k–3.05k range (follower).
