Gold prices (XAU)
XAU rises as weak US job data and tensions in Russia drive people to seek safe investments.
Current Price: As of August 3, 2025, the price of gold is approximately $3,362.85 per ounce.
Market Context: Gold prices rose by more than 1.50% on Friday after a disappointing Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report in the United States. The report showed that the job market is slowing down more quickly than expected.
Investors started to anticipate an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) after the July jobs data. Even though the Unemployment Rate remained relatively stable, signs of weakness in the labor market supported Fed Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller. They had suggested a 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut at the meeting on July 29-30.
Technical Analysis:
Gold price uptrend resumed on Friday, though the spot prices meander near the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,340. For a bullish resumption, buyers must conquer $3,350, followed by the $3,400 figure. A breach of the latter exposes key resistance levels, being the June 16 peak at $3,452, ahead of the YTD high of $3,500.
On the flip side, if XAU/USD tumbles below the 50-day SMA, it clears the path to test the next area of interest at $3,300.
Key Drivers:
The Federal Reserve’s meeting on July 29-30, 2025, and its interest rate decisions will influence gold prices, along with ongoing geopolitical tensions and tariff news. Recently, President Trump announced new tariffs on many trading partners and sent two nuclear submarines to specific areas in response to Russian Deputy Chairman Medvedev’s claim that Trump is making threats. This situation may cause Russians to seek safe assets.
US Dollar (DXY) consolidating
Current Value: As of August 3, 2025, the DXY is approximately 98.6941.
Market Context: The DXY is currently in a period of consolidation, indicating short-term weakness while still holding long-term support. Recent announcements regarding tariffs and underwhelming economic data, such as the July jobs report that showed only 73,000 new jobs were added, have contributed to its drop. This report also adjusted the figures for previous months downward, revealing persistent issues in the labor market.
Technical Analysis:
The DXY (Dollar Index) is currently stable but shows signs of weakness in the short term because the 50-day moving average is trending downward. The 200-day moving average offers strong support around 97.50.
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is neutral, meaning momentum is balanced. If the DXY drops below 97.00, it may fall further to 96.50. However, if it rises above 98.00, it could bounce back towards 99.00, especially if there is positive economic news or changes in Federal Reserve policies.
White House fact sheet, new tariffs, and market uncertainty.
The White House released its first policy on virtual assets on Wednesday, following US President Donald Trump’s Executive Order. The report is over 160 pages long and includes many recommendations about cryptocurrency policy, urging for clearer regulations in the US. President Trump signed an executive order imposing new tariffs on various countries, effective August 1, 2025, as part of his reciprocal tariff strategy, according to The White House Fact Sheet. These tariffs include rates like 50% for Brazil, 25% for Japan and South Korea, and 15% for the EU, causing significant market uncertainty.
The report did not significantly affect Bitcoin’s price, as it remained steady at around $111,700 that day. Market participants likely overlooked the report since it did not address essential topics, such as the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve. The tariffs have triggered a market selloff, with stocks slumping and the S&P experiencing its most significant daily percentage decline in over two months, as reported by Reuters.
The new tariffs have affected forex markets, with gold and the dollar showing mixed reactions. The crypto market experienced a $150 billion selloff, with $650 million in total liquidations, including $600 million in long positions.
Crypto Market
Bitcoin will continue its correction, or is it just consolidating before another move up?
Current Price: As of August 3, 2025, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $114,208.
Market Context: Bitcoin fell to $115,581.68 on August 1, 2025, because of selling driven by tariffs. However, it remains above its previous all-time high of $122,379 from July 2025. There is still interest from important investors and large holders, which suggests that Bitcoin may grow again, even with short-term ups and downs.
Technical Analysis:
Bitcoin currently has a short-term downward trend but is expected to rise in the long term. The 50-day moving average is decreasing, showing weakness in the short term. In contrast, the 200-day moving average has been increasing since July 30, 2025, indicating a strong long-term trend. The RSI is around 55, suggesting a neutral to slightly overbought condition.
Ethereum (ETH)
Current Price: As of August 3, 2025, Ethereum is trading at approximately $3,493.17.
Market Context: Ethereum is also experiencing a pullback due to market-wide selloffs, dropping to $3,631.90 on August 1, 2025, but remains a leader in DeFi and NFTs. Spot ETH ETFs have seen significant inflows, with BlackRock’s ETHA leading at $18.27 million on July 31, 2025.
Technical Analysis:
Trend: Ethereum is in a bullish phase, with the 50-day moving average sloping up. The 200-day moving average is sloping down but has been doing so since January 3, 2025, indicating a weak trend.
Indicators: The RSI is below the neutral zone, suggesting oversold conditions, with recent data at 79.55, indicating potential for a correction.
Key Drivers: Ongoing institutional support, steady developer activity, and Ethereum’s role in decentralized finance and smart contracts provide a solid foundation for sustained growth, despite recent volatility.
Altcoins Overview:
Market Context: Altcoins like Solana (SOL), XRP, and Tron (TRX) are gaining attention, with the total crypto market cap exceeding $3.85 trillion as of July 24, 2025.
There is talk of an “altcoin season” in August 2025, driven by capital rotation from Bitcoin to altcoins, potentially leading to rapid price increases.
Key Developments:
- Solana (SOL) is trading around $164.53, with strong performance due to its high throughput and low fees.
- XRP is at $2.93, benefiting from regulatory clarity and its role in cross-border transfers.
- Tron (TRX) is at $0.33, with significant activity in stablecoin transfers, hosting over $80.7 billion in USDT, surpassing Ethereum.
- Outlook: Investors are starting to show more interest in altcoins as they look to diversify beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum. However, altcoins are still more volatile than established assets. Recent selloffs have been linked to announcements about tariffs.
JPMorgan and Coinbase join hands to link bank accounts to crypto wallets.
JPMorgan Chase & Co., a US bank, and Coinbase Global Inc., an American cryptocurrency exchange, have signed an agreement. This deal will allow customers to link their bank accounts to their cryptocurrency wallets directly.
Bloomberg reported that these connections are expected to start operating next year. This partnership could help the cryptocurrency market grow, including Bitcoin, by encouraging more people to adopt cryptocurrencies and increasing cooperation between traditional banks and crypto platforms.
Conclusion
The forex and crypto markets face uncertainty from tariff announcements and weaker economic data. Gold is steady with potential for gains, while the US Dollar Index shows short-term weakness but long-term support. Bitcoin and Ethereum are experiencing some selloffs due to tariffs, but remain strong, backed by institutional interest and tech advancements. Altcoins are gaining momentum, with an expected “altcoin season” in August 2025. Investors should watch tariff developments and economic indicators for informed decisions. In forex, key events include the Federal Reserve’s recent meeting and upcoming data. In crypto, institutional adoption and regulations are crucial, and the recent volatility highlights the need for careful risk management.
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