Gold Surges Past $3,350 on Rate Cut Hopes and Weaker Dollar
Gold price rose during the North American session on Friday as the US Dollar lost value. Traders took profits ahead of the weekend. Additionally, comments from a Federal Reserve Governor were more supportive of a rate cut in July than expected. At that time, the XAU/USD was trading at $3,353, representing a 0.43% increase from the previous day.
XAU/USD technical outlook:
Gold is set to consolidate at around the $3,350 level for the remainder of the day, with traders awaiting the weekend. If XAU/USD rises past the current week’s high of $3,377, the next resistance would be $3,400. A breach of the latter clears the way to challenge the June 16 high of $3,452, ahead of the record high of $3,500.
On the other hand, if XAU/USD drops below $3,300, look for a decline to the June 30 low of $3,246, followed by the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,209.
US dollar analysis:
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar against six major currencies, is trading around 98.50, down about 0.17% on Friday. It has recovered from a low of 98.11.
Despite this drop, the DXY is up 0.57% for the week and is likely to gain for the second consecutive week, having hit a three-week high near 99.00 on Thursday.
The index encountered resistance near the 99.00 level after breaking out of a falling wedge pattern. It has fallen below the 50-day EMA at 98.74, which is a key level of resistance.
A close above this level could push it toward 99.50-100.00, while support lies near 97.80-98.00. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 53, indicating that buyers remain in control, albeit with limited confidence.
Pound Struggles Against Euro Amid Growth Concerns
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is struggling to match the Euro (EUR) this year, which shows a shift in market confidence toward Germany and the Eurozone. Chancellor Reeves will likely celebrate if the Bank of England lowers interest rates again in August. She will appreciate how this change could positively affect economic growth, according to Rabobank’s currency analyst Jane Foley.
BoE rate cut could offer temporary relief.
Economists expect slow growth in UK GDP and productivity this year. This makes it unlikely that Reeves will find improving economic conditions to help her with a challenging budget situation.
After performing better than the euro over the last two years, the pound has weakened against the euro this year. The EUR/GBP exchange rate is approaching our target of 0.87, which we now anticipate will be reached in three months. We have also raised our six-month forecast to 0.88.
Dow Jones Gains as Consumer Sentiment Improves but Earnings Weigh
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) reached its weekly high on Friday, driven by stronger consumer sentiment and improved inflation data. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 61.8, while one-year inflation expectations fell to 4.4%.
However, the Dow retreated after Q2 earnings reports from 3M and American Express disappointed investors despite beating headline forecasts. Both stocks fell by more than 3%, weighed down by legal expenses and concerns about future growth.
Technical Outlook
The DJIA struggled to hold the 44,500 level. If bearish momentum persists, the index could drift further below Monday’s opening levels.
Bitcoin Holds Steady at $118K as Market Awaits Breakout.
Bitcoin’s price remains steady at $118,000 as it consolidates below key resistance levels. The asset commands a market capitalization of $2.34 trillion with substantial 24-hour trading volume of around $24.52 billion and an intraday range of $117,502 to $118,483, indicating subdued volatility near a psychological inflection point.
Bitcoin is currently trading in a narrow range between $117,500 and $118,500 after facing resistance around $121,000. This pattern suggests market uncertainty, which could lead to a breakout. Caution is warranted, as the momentum indicator displays a bearish signal, while the MACD at 3,134 suggests some bullish strength.
On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin is consolidating lower from its peak of $123,236 with lower highs and decreasing volume, indicating buyer fatigue. Short-term moving averages are bullish, but the price remains below $120,000. A breakout above $120,500, accompanied by substantial volume, would signal a bullish trend, while a drop below $117,000 could lead to a decline toward $114,000–$111,000.
Market indicators show a mixed view. The RSI is at 65, the Stochastic is at 67, the CCI is at 60, and the ADX is at 28, all indicating neutrality. The Awesome Oscillator at 8,251 also indicates neutral territory. Overall, there is short-term weakness amid a longer-term uptrend.
Ethereum ETF mania: ETH targets $4,000—will key record break?
Ethereum’s price surged for six consecutive days, reaching around $3,580, marking a 158% increase since May. This rally coincided with a record $2.1 billion in inflows into Ethereum ETFs, bringing cumulative inflows to over $7.49 billion and marking the tenth consecutive week of positive inflows into these funds. BlackRock’s ETHA ETF leads the pack with $9.17 billion in assets.
The price increase aligns with positive industry trends, including the signing of the GENIUS Act and significant corporate accumulation by SharpLink. Additionally, the open interest in Ethereum futures reached a record $51 billion, indicating rising demand.
Technical indicators show a strong bull run, with ETH forming a golden cross and the Relative Strength Index rising. Despite momentum, the token may face a brief pullback before potentially reaching the psychological level of $4,000.
Weekly Crypto Regulation Roundup: Trump Signs GENIUS Act and SEC Eyes Tokenization Tweaks
In a significant week for the US crypto industry, President Trump signed the GENIUS Act into law, marking a substantial shift in the regulation of digital assets, especially dollar-backed stablecoins. This move reflects the Trump administration’s effort to provide clarity in the sector. Meanwhile, the SEC is exploring regulatory relief for tokenized securities, while Democratic lawmakers are vocal in their opposition, criticizing the Republican-led crypto agenda as a concession to industry elites.
Trump’s Crypto Comeback
On Tuesday, the House rejected the GENIUS Act with a 196–223 vote, surprising the crypto industry and threatening “Crypto Week.”
By Wednesday night, President Trump urged House Republicans to support the bill, stating that failing to pass it would harm US innovation. His intervention was effective.
The GENIUS Act, which stands for Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins, passed the Senate in June with a bipartisan vote of 68–30.
The bill requires a 1:1 reserve backing for stablecoins, creates federal licensing for issuers, and assigns oversight to regulatory authorities.
SEC Softens Stance on Tokenization
SEC Chairman Paul Atkins announced that the agency is looking into “innovation exemptions.” These exemptions aim to reduce the regulatory burden on tokenization platforms and digital asset infrastructure providers.
What’s Next?
The GENIUS Act is now law, and attention is turning to how it will be implemented. The Act allows for an 18-month period during which federal agencies will work with states to finalize rules for stablecoin issuers.
The SEC is still reviewing possible changes to regulations. If these changes happen, they could help tokenized platforms grow legally in the US.
At the same time, Democrats are likely to keep questioning the new rules, possibly through court challenges or pushback at the state level.
Bottom line
This week’s markets reflected a delicate balance between optimism and caution. Gold and crypto assets benefited from softer Fed commentary and strong inflows, while stocks faced pressure from mixed earnings and persistent global uncertainties. All eyes are now on upcoming US economic data, which could set the tone for the next leg in forex and crypto markets.
