Gold Firm Above $4,200 on Broad Dovish Repricing For December
Gold rose more than 1% on Friday, breaking above $4,200 for the first time in ten days, amid growing trader confidence about a Fed rate cut at the next meeting.
Holiday Trading And An 87% Chance of Rate Cuts Helped Keep Gold Moving Higher
An 87% chance of rate cuts, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, boosted gold’s rally. The Dollar Index remained steady, and Fed officials stopped making public comments ahead of the meeting.
US PPI data showed inflation slowing, which could encourage the Fed to ease policy. Still, low jobless claims point to a strong labor market, making rate cuts less certain.
Gold prices could climb higher, but possible Russia-Ukraine peace talks led by the White House might limit gains if market sentiment changes.
Next week, key US economic reports include the November ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs, Industrial Production, ADP Employment Change, and Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending November 29.
Technical Analysis: Buyers Push Gold Price Above $4,200, Eyes on Record High
Gold broke above $4,200, and momentum signals point to the next targets at $4,245 and $4,250.
If XAU/USD moves above $4,300, the next resistance is the all-time high at $4,381. If it falls below $4,200, support levels are at $4,109 and the 20-day SMA, now at $4,078.
Dollar Finishes Lower on Fed Rate Cut Expectations
The dollar index (DXY) ended down 0.08%, dropping to a 1.5-week low on Friday, as higher expectations for a Fed rate cut at the next FOMC meeting drove the decline. Swaps now show an 83% chance, up from 30% last week. Early gains faded, and strong equities reduced demand for the dollar.
DXY Holds Steady as Markets Pause
Lower trading volume during the Thanksgiving holiday led to lower FX volatility, keeping the Dollar Index near the mid-99s.
The Beige Book showed that overall consumer spending fell, but high-end retail stayed strong. Labor demand fell by half in half the districts, and prices rose moderately, mainly due to tariffs.
The Beige Book’s mixed results supported the Fed’s cautious approach to rates and only slightly pressured the USD.
A Bloomberg report naming Kevin Hassett as a leading candidate to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair has weighed on the dollar. Markets see his dovish views as likely to bring looser policy, making the dollar less attractive. There is also speculation that he may support President Trump’s preference for low rates, raising concerns about Fed independence and adding to market uncertainty.
Bitcoin Price Watch: Volume Fades, but a Breakout Still Beckons
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP steadied after this week’s recovery. Key targets for further rallies are $100,000 for BTC, $3,500 for ETH, and $2.35 for XRP.
Bitcoin Is Still in A Holding Pattern After Recent Swings, As Traders Remain Undecided
Participation in the Bitcoin derivatives market dropped after the October 10 crash. Futures Open Interest (OI) fell to $60 billion on Friday, down from $65 billion on November 21, $71 billion on November 1, and the record high of $94 billion on October 7.
A rise in Open Interest would help support a Bitcoin rally, but ongoing weakness could put BTC at risk of falling.
Bitcoin Chart Outlook
After dropping to $80,537, Bitcoin bounced back above $90,000. This move, along with higher trading volume, suggests a possible falling wedge breakout.
Bitcoin buyers are still active. If the breakout continues, the next targets are $94,000 to $96,000. But if Bitcoin falls below $80,500, that would be bearish.
On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin rose from $85,225 to $93,091 and is now trading between $90,000 and $91,500. If it can’t break $93,100 or stay above $89,500, more losses could follow.
Most Bitcoin indicators are neutral. Oscillators don’t show a clear trend, but there are signs of mild bearishness and a possible bullish reversal. Overall, Bitcoin is consolidating.
Ethereum’s Calm Before the Storm
Ethereum is trading just above $3,000 in a quiet period, but big investor moves and an upcoming technical event could trigger major price moves.
Institutional Accumulation Gains Momentum
Major institutions are buying during this sideways trend, shown by strong US spot ETF inflows and renewed confidence from big investors.
Summary
In summary, gold has jumped above $4,200 as markets expect a Federal Reserve rate cut, with an 87% chance priced in. This dovish outlook has helped gold, while the dollar index has slipped slightly. Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies are consolidating after recent rebounds, and investors are watching for more rallies. The UK is also planning new rules for crypto exchanges to improve tax compliance and transparency, starting in 2026. Overall, markets are dealing with easing expectations, cautious Fed signals, and changing crypto regulations.
