Markets entered October on a cautious yet opportunistic note. The U.S. government shutdown, which officially began on October 1, fueled uncertainty and temporarily halted several major data releases; however, risk sentiment held surprisingly firm. Equity indices extended their rallies, the dollar softened, gold tested fresh record highs, and Bitcoin continued to attract institutional inflows.
Below is this week’s detailed breakdown across key assets.
Gold — Record highs as the shutdown fuels safe-haven demand
Gold extended its historic rally this week, breaking through the $3,900/oz mark for the first time in history. The metal closed the week near $3,885, marking its seventh consecutive weekly gain and cementing its position as 2025’s standout performer.
The rally was supported by a combination of safe-haven flows, a weaker U.S. dollar, and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates later this month. The partial U.S. government shutdown delayed key economic indicators — including the jobs report and CPI — which left investors searching for defensive hedges.
Meanwhile, ETF inflows into physical gold reached their highest weekly level since March, according to data from Bloomberg.
Gold’s performance year-to-date now stands at +47%, driven by persistent geopolitical tensions and continued central-bank accumulation, particularly from Asia and the Middle East.
Technical outlook
Momentum remains firmly bullish but increasingly stretched. The next resistance sits at the psychological $4,000 level, followed by $4,080 if the uptrend accelerates. Short-term support lies around $3,840–$3,860, with deeper bids expected near $3,800.
RSI readings above 75 on the daily chart suggest the potential for a brief consolidation before the next leg higher. As long as prices hold above $3,800, the broader trend remains intact.
U.S. Dollar (DXY) — Data blackout pressures the greenback
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell for a second straight week, ending near 97.7, its lowest level since early August. The ongoing government shutdown disrupted major data publications, clouding the Fed’s decision-making process and prompting traders to reduce exposure to the dollar.
With limited macro visibility, the dollar faced downward pressure from rate-cut bets and rising demand for risk assets. Treasury yields eased slightly, while Fed funds futures continued to price in a 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting.
Elsewhere, emerging-market currencies stabilized, aided by central-bank interventions — the RBI was reportedly active in smoothing rupee volatility near record lows.
Technical outlook
The DXY remains below its 50-day moving average for the first time in nearly two months. Key support sits at 97.4, followed by 97.0, while resistance appears around 98.2–98.6.
Failure to reclaim the 98 handle could open the door for a deeper retracement toward mid-96s in the coming sessions.
For now, the dollar’s direction hinges on political developments in Washington and clarity on when delayed data releases will resume.
Bitcoin — Volatile mid-week liquidation, steady close near $120K
Bitcoin experienced another turbulent but ultimately constructive week. After briefly dipping toward $117,000 on Wednesday amid a $1.6 billion wave of leveraged liquidations, BTC rebounded strongly, closing the week near $120,000 — up roughly 11% from the prior week.
The move was driven by continued ETF inflows, renewed institutional positioning, and the growing perception of Bitcoin as a “digital safe haven” amid the U.S. fiscal standoff.
On Thursday, CoinShares reported over $820 million in net inflows into U.S. Bitcoin ETFs, marking the highest weekly total since mid-July.
Volatility, however, remains elevated, with the average 30-day realized volatility index holding above 45%.
Despite the shakeout earlier in the week, on-chain data showed that long-term holders increased their exposure, a sign of confidence in the ongoing uptrend.
Technical outlook
Bitcoin continues to trade within a broad ascending channel that has defined its movement since August.
Immediate resistance is located at $125,000–$126,500, with a decisive breakout above this zone potentially opening the path to $130K and beyond.
Key supports to watch: $117,000 → $113,000 → $110,000.
The 20-day EMA near $118,000 is acting as a dynamic support; a daily close below it could trigger short-term profit-taking, but overall structure remains bullish while above $110K.
Ethereum — Consolidation continues amid whale accumulation
Ethereum spent most of the week consolidating between $4,400–$4,600, underperforming Bitcoin slightly but showing notable resilience.
Large wallets (“whales”) were reported to have accumulated over 800,000 ETH during the week, according to Santiment data — a sign of medium-term confidence despite reduced speculative leverage.
Network activity remained steady, with average gas prices near 24 gwei and daily on-chain volume consistent at ~$16 billion. Layer-2 solutions like Arbitrum and Base continued to absorb traffic, keeping ETH transaction fees contained.
While Ethereum lagged in performance, its fundamental metrics — validator participation, staking inflows, and DeFi TVL — all showed incremental improvement, suggesting underlying health in the ecosystem.
Technical outlook
ETH faces stiff resistance around $4,600–$4,800. A confirmed breakout above $4,800 could pave the way toward $5,000–$5,100 in the medium term.
Immediate support sits near $4,350, with stronger demand expected at $4,000.
Momentum indicators are neutral, pointing to a potential accumulation phase before the next breakout. Traders should watch for a narrowing range and spike in volume as signs of an impending move.
Wrap Up
Markets now enter the second week of October focused on two key themes:
1- The duration and potential resolution of the U.S. government shutdown.
2- The Federal Reserve’s communication leading into its late-October meeting.
If risk appetite remains intact and the dollar remains subdued, both precious metals and cryptocurrencies could continue to outperform into mid-October.
However, overstretched momentum — particularly in gold — suggests traders should watch for short-term volatility or brief pullbacks before the next trend move.
The past week showcased how narrative shifts — from fiscal uncertainty to rate-cut optimism — can simultaneously lift both traditional and digital safe-haven assets. As we move deeper into Q4, cross-market correlations will remain fluid, but the overarching message is clear: liquidity is returning, and volatility is back on the menu.
